Making the MAX out of a missed opportunity

Jan 20, 2016

In December the 737 MAX 8 was unveiled to Boeing employees at a quiet ceremony that belied its importance to the US manufacturer, but perhaps befitted an aircraft Boeing was once reluctant to build.

There were 588 737NG and 737 MAX orders last year, a total that the A320 line seems certain to surpass when Airbus releases its 2015 tally.

Some have blamed the A320neo’s eminence in the new-engine narrowbody market on Boeing’s procrastination five years ago about the 737’s replacement.

By the time the decision to re-engine rather than redesign had been made, Airbus had a 1,000-order headstart for the neo, and since then it has built on that lead.

Arguably, though, Boeing’s hand was forced well before the 737 MAX was belatedly launched in August 2011, just a few weeks ahead of the 787’s debut with ANA.

Three years behind schedule, the Dreamliner’s swollen timetable sucked in all of Boeing’s resources, so diving into any new project – let alone one concerning its best-selling aircraft line – would have been foolhardy.

Instead, Boeing granted itself the space to deliver a product that is on time and, for the 737 MAX 8 at least, competitive.

Worries do remain at the upper end of the narrowbody envelope, where the MAX 9 is being easily outsold by the A321neo, but that may open the door for Boeing to release a 757 replacement.

“We could be going back to the days where Boeing had lower numbers on the 737 but compensated for it with the 757,” comments Richard Aboulafia, VP analysis at the Teal Group.

Another question concerns Boeing’s ability to keep pace with Airbus’ slated production ramp-ups.

The US manufacturer, which out-delivered Airbus again last year, has promised to roll out 52 737NGs and MAXs per month by 2018, up from 42 737NGs at present.

However, the MAX is probably a newer aircraft relative to its predecessor than the A320neo is to the A320ceo, meaning more changes for Boeing to incorporate in its Renton plants.